image1 image2 image3

PRODUCT.|PHILOSOPHY.|LIFE.

What will I tell my friends?


Quite often, the biggest hurdle I face when it comes to change my mind about something is that I'll have to admit that my previous decision was wrong.

We do the same with celebrities and politicians and give them stick when they do a 180 on an opinion they had once held months or years ago.

But then, just because we are changing our decision or opinion now doesn't mean we had made a wrong decision before. It only appears wrong in hindsight, with the new data that has been revealed.

When we make a decision, we do it with all the information we have at that point in time. We objectively evaluate the probabilities of various new outcomes and information that will likely come along in the future and make the best decision at that time.

This is the equivalent of pricing the future of a stock at a given time. We aren't saying that the price will be exactly what we say it will be three months down. We are only saying that if everything goes as we expect them to, then this will be the price in three months.

But everything going as we expect it over a sufficiently long period of time has lesser odds than finding a needle in a haystack.

As and when new information comes up, we re-evaluate our positions and change our decisions and opinions accordingly. If you decide to stubbornly hold onto Snap stock even when it is posting lower user and revenue growth because you don't it to look like you had made a poor decision in buying it before, then you will face the consequential financial losses.

Whenever the only hindrance to you changing your opinion or decision upon seeing new information is the fact that you don't want to seem like you had made a wrong decision, then remember the stock analogy.

So what will I tell my friends?

I'd rather tell them I changed my mind than stubbornly hold onto a decision just because it was already made. Because if I don't, that's when I will be making the wrong decision. 

Share this:

CONVERSATION

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to my mailing list